Re: ChessBase: A Gross Miscarriage of Justice in Computer Ch
Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:16 am
Here is (a copy of) the first Riis image:
He makes a big deal out of Junior's post-Fruit jump here. Can anyone confirm his Junior numbers of ~2800 in 2005 and ~3000 in 2006? Maybe the latter is multicore?
As noted above, I find Junior 9 (late 2004) and Junior 10 (mid 2006) to differ by 70-80 Elo, from CCRL/CEGT data. Also, Junior 11 was not released until 2009, so does Riis simply interpolate the 2007/8 numbers (and similarly with other engines)? Given that this graph forms a significant kernel of his argument, its genesis should be more adequately described. He claims the data are derived from "historical SSDF and CCRL data" (obviously erroneous for the 2004 Rybka datapoint, and others) -- maybe he splices one into the other at the juncture of interest (note that CCRL was founded about this time), and this causes the blip?
Incidentally, his claim of a "new paradigm" of "ultra-fast climbers" for the later years (2008-11) is a bit dubious, as many of the engines that he highlights under this moniker are flat-lining by now. The big jump seems to be in 2004-8, though even here his data rendition visually exaggerates the slope via the inclusion of early Rybka/Naum/Fruit versions (he should exclude them for 2004, at the least, particularly if there is the above SSDF-CCRL conjunction). Furthermore, given that the data do not seem to be hardware-uniformised (from what I can tell), for all I know, the "jumps" in the years of interest (2004-8) simply coincide with the mass-marketing of multicore machines. (E.g., he lists Rybka 4.1 x64 as 3128 in his [CEGT] table, and it is over 3200, nearly 3300, in the graph, so maybe the latter is multicore, whereas early Rybka datapoints would be single core)?
As I say, as his argument (its relevance aside) is largely based on these graphs, less sloppiness would be (much) appreciated. The graph above could almost be a caricature of how not to present data, given that it appears to: splice multiple datasets (two named, though at least one more must exist for Rybka/Naum 2004), round off release dates to the nearest year, linearly interpolate years for which there is no release, mix data across hardware differences, and include somewhat extraneous data from early years of some engines (but not others). This in addition to what I think are simply errors (e.g. the Rybka 2005 datapoint of ~2675), and the "casually sourced" (look it up yourself!) nature of it all. [Incidentally, it seems the earliest SSDF Rybka appearance is Rybka 1.0 Beta at 2773 on a slow 450Mhz computer, not much comparable to the CCRL normalisation. The earliest Naum is 3.1 (CCRL has 1.91 from early 2006), so the 2004/5 Naum datapoints do indeed appear contrived].
Already one can critique that "year-based" methodology (rounding to the nearest year) can be a bit distortive for some -- however, I have a specific question.He makes a big deal out of Junior's post-Fruit jump here. Can anyone confirm his Junior numbers of ~2800 in 2005 and ~3000 in 2006? Maybe the latter is multicore?

Incidentally, his claim of a "new paradigm" of "ultra-fast climbers" for the later years (2008-11) is a bit dubious, as many of the engines that he highlights under this moniker are flat-lining by now. The big jump seems to be in 2004-8, though even here his data rendition visually exaggerates the slope via the inclusion of early Rybka/Naum/Fruit versions (he should exclude them for 2004, at the least, particularly if there is the above SSDF-CCRL conjunction). Furthermore, given that the data do not seem to be hardware-uniformised (from what I can tell), for all I know, the "jumps" in the years of interest (2004-8) simply coincide with the mass-marketing of multicore machines. (E.g., he lists Rybka 4.1 x64 as 3128 in his [CEGT] table, and it is over 3200, nearly 3300, in the graph, so maybe the latter is multicore, whereas early Rybka datapoints would be single core)?
As I say, as his argument (its relevance aside) is largely based on these graphs, less sloppiness would be (much) appreciated. The graph above could almost be a caricature of how not to present data, given that it appears to: splice multiple datasets (two named, though at least one more must exist for Rybka/Naum 2004), round off release dates to the nearest year, linearly interpolate years for which there is no release, mix data across hardware differences, and include somewhat extraneous data from early years of some engines (but not others). This in addition to what I think are simply errors (e.g. the Rybka 2005 datapoint of ~2675), and the "casually sourced" (look it up yourself!) nature of it all. [Incidentally, it seems the earliest SSDF Rybka appearance is Rybka 1.0 Beta at 2773 on a slow 450Mhz computer, not much comparable to the CCRL normalisation. The earliest Naum is 3.1 (CCRL has 1.91 from early 2006), so the 2004/5 Naum datapoints do indeed appear contrived].